Risk analysis of gas distribution pipelines in apartments using the event tree analysis method

Abstract

During operation of gas pipelines hazards are found that can lead to failure of pipelines, including of gas distribution networks in apartments. However, research on risk analysis of gas distribution pipelines in apartments has not been widely reported. The present study represented a step toward filling in that gap; its purpose was to analyze risks in gas distribution pipelines in apartment scenario using event tree analysis method. Risk factors for gas distribution pipelines are expressed in terms of consequences and probabilities. Event tree analysis involves, first, identifying scenarios, then identifying pivotal events, constructing an event tree diagram, obtaining event failure rates and calculating risk probability. Risk level is rated as negligible, tolerable or intolerable. Results of this study show that all observed risk levels are intolerable. Even in a small-scale leakage scenario, it is likely to result in fire and severe casualties with probability value 2.6x10−3. In order to reduce the risk, gas detectors and heat/smoke detectors should be used in apartments.During operation of gas pipelines hazards are found that can lead to failure of pipelines, including of gas distribution networks in apartments. However, research on risk analysis of gas distribution pipelines in apartments has not been widely reported. The present study represented a step toward filling in that gap; its purpose was to analyze risks in gas distribution pipelines in apartment scenario using event tree analysis method. Risk factors for gas distribution pipelines are expressed in terms of consequences and probabilities. Event tree analysis involves, first, identifying scenarios, then identifying pivotal events, constructing an event tree diagram, obtaining event failure rates and calculating risk probability. Risk level is rated as negligible, tolerable or intolerable. Results of this study show that all observed risk levels are intolerable. Even in a small-scale leakage scenario, it is likely to result in fire and severe casualties with probability value 2.6x10−3. In order to reduce the ris...