Abstract
repair of the components. This technology has been increasingly used in the maintenance and management of aging aircraft e eets to improve e ight safety and reduce costs. The output of risk analysis can be used to optimize the maintenance schedule of aging aircraft while maintaining the POF under an acceptable level. To examine the performance of fatigue critical structures, probabilistic risk analysis has been applied to both military and commercial aircraft, and it is believed to be the approach of choice for the future. 1 Various probabilistic risk analysis methodologies have been developed for aging aircraft structures. Generally, there are two aspects in the probabilistic risk analysis to be noted. First is deterministic damage tolerance and durability analysis, such as the analysis of the median crack growth data, the onset pattern of initial MSD, crack linkup criterion, and failure criterion. Considerable effort has been expended on this issue using fracture
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