Risk Analysis of Engine Room Module Installation with Integration of Bayesian Network and System Dynamics

Abstract

The hospital auxiliary ship has been built using a modular system that can speed up ship manufacture by up to 50%. However, in actual shipbuilding, the engine room module has a 29% longer time allotment than the other zones. Therefore, the zone might potentially have the most delay during the entire process of manufacturing a modular ship. Production delays are brought on by incorrect block dimension accuracy, the delivery of pictures that are out of order, the state of damaged machines, the loading of blocks that aren’t scheduled, and the amount of drawing changes in addition to equipment and basic material shipping delays. The workshop where the engine room installation has been built has experienced a delay. By using the Bayesian Network and System Dynamics integration technique, the main cause of delay in this study can be predicted sooner. The Electrical Outfitting workshop has the most potential delay, according to the simulation results. The production index has fallen by 45%, and production has taken 51% longer than originally planned. This is due to the delay in revising the drawings, cable materials, equipment, and cable cutting data.