Abstract
Risk analysis of emergency is vital to effective emergency management. However, conventional analysis is challenged by the emerging problems as risk of emergency appearing increasingly complicated. The risk attributes of emergency originate in complicated sources, and their information is always incomplete. To ensure the efficiency and stability of emergency risk analysis, we proposed an elaborative approach composed of structural description framework and fuzzy evidential reasoning. Firstly, the risk attributes are identified by structural description framework. The information as evidence is obtained and normalized for further analysis. Secondly, risk analysis model with fuzzy evidential reasoning is constructed, and risk grade is evaluated. Finally, a certain railway project accident is taken as an example to test the model and some managerial insights are demonstrated. An approach combining structural description framework and fuzzy evidential reasoning model is feasible and effective; furthermore, it provides stable support for emergency risk analysis.
Highlights
Over the past decades, research on emergency management has gained enormous attention in both academia and practice [1,2,3,4]
One interesting point is that the risk value of the key attribute is not significantly high comparing with the traditional recognition
Secondary attribute performs relatively average in risk grade and belief, which is basically consistent with the actual situation
Summary
Research on emergency management has gained enormous attention in both academia and practice [1,2,3,4]. Erefore, we propose an analysis approach by incorporating the structural description framework in fuzzy evidential reasoning. We propose a novel approach for risk analysis by combining structural description framework with fuzzy evidential reasoning, especially when the information is imperfect either uncertain or incomplete. Considering the relationship among general attributes, basic attributes, and emergency risk grade, we obtain the reasoning rules as follows. Obtain the risk analysis result Figure 3: Framework of fuzzy evidential reasoning model. At is, given the information of risk attributes, the fuzzy evidential reasoning model would make sense on estimating to what extent the accident would happen. This approach helps to evaluate the severity of the accident consequence. Note that there is still an intersection between the adjacent grades; we pursue to allocate the intersection by the following steps
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