Abstract
The determination of diversion risk in the construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects is a key problem related to the guarantee of project safety, saving project investment, giving full play to benefits in advance and facilitating construction. According to the design data, considering the influence of the uncertain factors such as hydrology and hydraulics, this paper analyses the relationship between the elevation of the upstream cofferdam and the upstream design water level, uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate the construction flood process and the discharge capacity of the diversion buildings, makes statistical analysis and determines the risk corresponding to the upstream water level distribution of the cofferdam and the water retaining height of the cofferdam, and establishes the calculation model of the construction diversion risk.
Highlights
The total installed capacity of a hydropower project is 40MW, its normal water storage level is 458.00m, the elevation of the dam top is 460.00m, and the total storage capacity is 934.63m3
(2) According to the calculation of the initial diversion risk rate, when the completion rate of expansion is reduced from 100% to about 50%, the increase in the risk rate of cofferdam water retention is relatively small, from 0.242 to 0.279, and when the expansion is completed, When the rate is below 50%, the cofferdam risk rate increases significantly, from 0.279 to 0.421
(3) Through the calculation of flood diversion and later diversion risk rates, it can be known that when the dredging rate is 100% to 85%, the cofferdam water retention risk rate increases relatively smoothly, and when the dredging rate is less than 85% The risk rate of cofferdam water retention will increase sharply
Summary
There are many uncertain factors in construction diversion, and there are many ways to study the risk rate of construction diversion. The application time of risk analysis in water conservancy and hydropower construction is relatively short, and the results have certain limitations. In the construction diversion planning of water conservancy and hydropower, people usually only regard the peak discharge as the uncertain factor, select the construction diversion standard, diversion discharge and determine the diversion scheme according to the type and scale of the building. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the process of construction flood and the discharge condition of diversion buildings. The water level distribution in front of upstream cofferdam and the dynamic risk of cofferdam operation under different diversion standards are determined by statistical analysis model
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