Abstract
BackgroundAfrican swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs. ASF poses a potential threat to the world pig industry, due to the lack of vaccines and treatments. In this study, the Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was applied to analyze the distribution, dispersion of the epidemic and clustering of ASF in Poland.ResultsThe results show that the center of the epidemic moved gradually towards the southwest, and the distribution of the epidemic changed from south-north to east-west. Through space-time scan statistical analysis, the 3 clusters major of wild boar cases involve longer time spans and larger radii, while the other five with higher relative risks involved in domestic pigs. And then, a quantitative model was constructed to analyse the risk of releasing African swine fever virus (ASFV) from Poland by the legal export of pork and pork products. The Latin hypercube sampling results show that the probability is relatively low (the average value is 4.577 × 10− 7).ConclusionsAll the identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic and the risk analysis model would give a further understanding of the dynamics of disease transmission and help to design corresponding measures to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASFV introduction.
Highlights
African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs
The morbidity and mortality caused by infection with a virulent strain of the virus can be as high as 100% and it is listed in the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) Terrestrial Animal Health Code and must be reported to the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code [2]
Distribution and clustering of the epidemic situation The surveillance data on ASF from February 2014 to December 2017 in Poland were collated from the EMPRES Global Animal Disease Information System (EMPRES-i) [18] of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), since the actual longitude and latitude of the outbreak can be obtained
Summary
African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs. ASF poses a potential threat to the world pig industry, due to the lack of vaccines and treatments. African swine fever (ASF) is the most serious epidemic disease in the pig industry, which is caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV) [1]. The morbidity and mortality caused by infection with a virulent strain of the virus can be as high as 100% and it is listed in the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) Terrestrial Animal Health Code and must be reported to the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code [2]. The main clinical manifestations are hemorrhage of skin, mucous membrane, internal organs and respiratory disorder, and these symptoms are very similar to those reported for classical swine fever, porcine erysipelas, coumarin poisoning and hemorrhagic. ASF is a disease with obvious regional epidemic. An ASF epidemic occurred in neighboring Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan, and formed a new prevalence area for its establishment [5]
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