Abstract
Due to the distribution of runoff is uneven and uncertain in time and space, there are huge differences between the electricity markets dominated by hydropower and thermal power. Therefore, how to evaluate the risk of cascade plants participating in electricity market is an urgent problem to be solved. Based on the rules of the market in southwest China which hydropower plays a leading role, this paper proposes a risk analysis method for cascade hydropower to participate in market which is coupled with monthly market and day-ahead market: Copula-Monet Carlo is used to generate the combined scenario of daily runoff and daily clearing price, and the LINGO solver is used to calculate the generation income of all scenarios, and the corresponding conditional value-at-risk value(CVaR) of portfolio is obtained according to the confidence level. The method takes into account the uncertainty of runoff and electricity price in the meantime, as well as the settlement order and deviation assessment of each market in the settlement rules, and can directly solve the income and risk value. The process is simple and the physical meaning is clear. Using the actual data of a grid cascade hydropower participating in the electricity market as an example, the simulation analysis of the results shows that the proposed method can easily solve the portfolio risk value, and can more reasonably evaluate the risk value compared with the considering runoff and day-ahead market clearing prices separately.
Highlights
Since the new round of electricity reform in 2015, most of regions and provinces in China have established a mature and complete medium- and long-term electricity market through continuous efforts in recent years
On the basis of the above research, this paper proposes a risk analysis model of medium-term dispatching operation of cascade hydropower plants integrated into electricity market settlement rules, taking into account the uncertainty of runoff and the correlation with day-ahead market clearing price
Lingo solver is used to calculate the portfolio income of cascade hydropower plants in each scenario; the corresponding CVaR value is obtained according to the confidence level, and the risk value of portfolio income is calculated intuitively, which can be used as a reference for cascade reservoirs to arrange their output plans and reasonably organize their participation in various transactions
Summary
Since the new round of electricity reform in 2015, most of regions and provinces in China have established a mature and complete medium- and long-term electricity market through continuous efforts in recent years. Already formed an electricity market pattern with ‘‘mediumand long-term trading as main way, day-ahead market as a supplement’’. The electricity marketization volume reached 104.538 billion kWh in 2019, an increase of 22.84% over last year. It accounts for more than 58% of the province’s power generation energy, ranking first in terms of market openness in China. The hydropower marketization volume reached 83.627 billion kWh, accounting for 80%
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