Risk analysis in port competition for containerized imports

Abstract

A number of factors are causing changes in container logistics, particularly for imports into the United States. These include growth and volatility in demands, expansion of new routes (Panama Canal and Northwest Passage), and development of new ports (Prince Rupert and ports on the Mexican west coast). Uncertainty is a major factor confronting logistics for container shipping. A stochastic network-flow model is developed in this study to analyze risk in port throughput as a result of randomness in critical variables in the logistics system for container imports into the United States. The results illustrate the stochastic distribution of container shipments at ports and routes serving the U.S. container market. The derived distributions for port throughput have important implications for port management.