Risk analysis for biological weed control - simulating dispersal of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (Lib.) de Bary ascospores from a pasture after biological control of Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop.

Abstract

Biological control of Cirsium arvense(L.) Scop. in pasture by the plurivorous plantpathogenic fungus Sclerotiniasclerotiorum (Lib.) de Bary mayresult in the formation, escape and aerialdispersal of ascospores, creating an additionaldisease risk in down-wind market garden crops. To determine the width of a safety zone for apasture subjected to this form of weed control,we simulated the spatial pattern in the ratioof added (due to biocontrol) to naturallyoccurring airborne ascospores (due to marketgarden crops) around a 1ha virtual biocontrolpasture under either sheep or dairy cattlegazing over a 91-day emission period in 1996 inCanterbury, New Zealand. This was achievedusing a unique combination of two computermodels; SPORESIM-1D (for spore escape from avegetation source) and PC-STACKS (a modernGaussian plume model for dispersal beyond asource). Plumes of dispersing ascospores weremodelled for each hour of the emission periodfor both the virtual market garden andbiocontrol sites, and the aerial density of theascospores was averaged over the period. Assuming that a 1:1 ratio of added to naturallypresent spores is acceptable, no safety zonewas necessary for either of the modeledpastures. A ten-fold ratio (1:10 added tonatural) necessitated safety zones of 300 and150 m for the sheep and dairy pasturerespectively. Uncertainties associated withextrapolation of this conclusion to individualpasture management scenarios, and to otheryears and climatically different regions arediscussed.