Abstract
Establishing an adequate level of reliability in the overhead crane operations is an important and vital principle to avoid undesirable consequences. To do this, it is appropriate to have a comprehensive approach for risk and reliability assessment of the most probable failure scenarios during overhead crane operations. In this study, fault tree analysis (FTA) in combination with fuzzy set theory, Bayesian network (BN), and Markov chain was used to evaluate the probability of top event and reliability of overhead cranes. A total of 47 basic events were identified for ladle fall in overhead cranes. The results showed that the probability of the ladle fall in the FT approach is equal to 0.0523035 and in the BN approach in the prior event is equal to 0.0273394 which is less than the FT method. Based on the values predicted by Markov chain, the reliability of the system decreases over time by 67.9% after 60 months. This study showed that the plan for ladle fall prevention should consider all influencing parameters identified by proper risk assessment methodologies.
Highlights
Establishing an adequate level of reliability in the overhead crane operations is an important and vital principle to avoid undesirable consequences
A total of 47 basic events were identified for ladle fall in overhead cranes. e results showed that the probability of the ladle fall in the FT approach is equal to 0.0523035 and in the Bayesian network (BN) approach in the prior event is equal to 0.0273394 which is less than the FT method
Sykora et al used BNs to provide a framework for analyzing the probability of risk. e results of this study showed that BNs provide an effective tool for estimating the probability of events in risk assessment [18]
Summary
Establishing an adequate level of reliability in the overhead crane operations is an important and vital principle to avoid undesirable consequences. Fault tree analysis (FTA) in combination with fuzzy set theory, Bayesian network (BN), and Markov chain was used to evaluate the probability of top event and reliability of overhead cranes. Databases have suffered from some limitations such as the lack of failure rates for all root events and the low trustworthiness of the related data In some resources, such as the NOG-070 report, it has been clearly mentioned that if the number of components subject to failure is less than 30 components, the estimated failure rate will not be sufficiently reliable to assess the system safety [4]. E fuzzy method can be a good tool for determining the probability in case of vague and uncertain information [9] Despite using this approach and reducing the uncertainties raised from divergences in individual opinions, the FTA structure is remaining static and its deductive reasoning became impossible. Rahman et al used the FTA for customer reliability assessment of a distribution power system which obtained the satisfactory results for estimation frequency of failure and Mean Inactivity Time [11]
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