Risk-adjusted performance forecasting of future key technology

Abstract

A new way of identifying future key technologies based on a risk-adjusted technology performance measure is suggested for policymakers. Current key technologies are identified by patent citation network analysis. Employing growth curve fitting, we forecast the future growth path of these technologies, and evaluate their risk-adjusted future performance. Overcoming the weaknesses of return-only and current-focused key technology identification, our method can better inform policymakers and experts about both the return and risk of future key technologies, helping them to make better decisions.