Risk acceptability and cost-effectiveness of protective measures against terrorist threats to built infrastructure considering multiple threat scenarios

Abstract

Decisions are often needed about the need and/or extent of protective measures against explosive blast loads on built infrastructure. A decision support analysis considers fatality risks and cost-effectiveness of protective measures expressed in terms of expected cost spent on risk reduction per life saved for terrorist threats to infrastructure. The analysis is applicable to any item of infrastructure, but in this paper is applied to casualties arising from building facade glazing damage. Risks may be compared with risk acceptance criteria in the form of quantitative safety goals. The risk acceptability and cost-effectiveness of protective measures includes cost of the protective measures, attack probability, reduction in risk due to protective measures, probability of fatality conditional on successful terrorist attack and number of exposed individuals.