Abstract
Abiotic factors are fundamental drivers of the dynamics of wild marine fish populations. Identifying and quantifying their influence on species targeted by the fishing industry is difficult and very important for managing fisheries in a changing climate. Using multiple regression, we investigated the influence of both temperature and rainfall on the variability of recruitment of a tropical species, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus), in Moreton Bay which is located near the southern limit of its distribution on the east coast of Australia. A step-wise selection between 60 environmental variables identified temperature as the most important environmental factor to explain the variations of recruitment between 1990 and 2014. Including temperature into the Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment relationship explained 69% of the recruitment variability compared with 9.5% when omitted. This analysis indicates that increasing temperatures have increased recruitment of brown tiger prawn in Moreton Bay.
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