Rising incidence of obesity-related cancers among younger adults in China: A population-based analysis (2007-2021).

Abstract

Developing countries face an "obesity epidemic," particularly affecting children and younger adults. While obesity is a known risk factor for 12 types of cancer, primarily affecting older populations, its impact on younger generations is understudied. This study analyzed data from a population-based cancer registry covering 14.14 million individuals in China (2007-2021). We compared the incidence of obesity- and non-obesity-related cancers and applied an age-period-cohort model to estimate their impacts. Among 651,342 cancer cases, 48.47% were obesity related. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) of the 12 obesity-related cancers increased annually by 3.6% (p<0.001), while ASRs for non-obesity-related cancers remained stable. Obesity-related cancers surged among younger adults, with rates rising across successive generations. The annual percentage of change decreased with age, from 15.28% for ages 25-29 years to 1.55% for ages 60-64 years. The incidence rate ratio for obesity-related cancer was higher in younger generations compared to those born in 1962-1966. We predict that the ASR for obesity-related cancers will nearly double in the next decade. The rising incidence of obesity-related cancers among young adults poses a significant public health concern. The increasing cancer burden underscores the need for targeted interventions to address the obesity epidemic. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81930019, 82341076) to J.-K.Y.