Rising COVID-19 Cases in Ghana and Bordering Neighbours. Correlating Impact on National Elections Backed with Holt’s Model

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic poses an additional challenge to countries with planned national elections in 2020. In West Africa, moments of uncertainties engulf Ghana and her neighboring countries as they approach crucial stages of their democratic growth with impending presidential and legislative elections amidst rising COVID-19 cases. This paper identified the impact of COVID-19 on these critical national elections. COVID-19 daily case count and the accumulated infection, death, and recovery cases for each of the countries under study were assessed and Holt Exponential Smoothing (HES) forecasting method was adopted to predict the spread of the virus as the election cycle peaks in these countries. While the cumulative case count in Ghana is projected to hit 36,497 by December 23, case count in Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso will rise to 14086 and 2131, respectively after their elections. It was also established that the many activities that embody the electoral cycle could potentially exacerbate the cases in the respective countries which could affect voter participation and ultimately shape the dynamics of democracy and internal security. This study will serve as an important guide for improving decision-making and scenario planning for the elections in the sampled countries.