Abstract

Convection of the upper mantle drives the tectonic plates. This convection is a thermodynamic cycle that exchanges heat and mechanical work between mantle and tectonic plates. Thermodynamics and observations indicate that the energy of the geological activities resulting from plate tectonics is equal to the latent heat of melting, calculated at mantle’s pressure, of the new ocean crust regenerated at midocean ridges. This energy varies with the temperature of ocean floor, which is correlated with surface temperature. The main objective of this manuscript is to demonstrate that plate tectonics is a thermodynamic engine and can be calculated as such. Unlike existing tectonic models, the thermodynamic model is very sensitive to variations of the temperature of ocean floor, which is correlated with surface temperature. Therefore, the observed increase of geological activities can be projected with surface temperature rise. Other objectives of the manuscript are to calculate the force that drives the tectonic plates, estimate the energy released, and validate the calculations based on experiments and observations. In addition to the scientific merit of projecting the geological activities, a good projection can have a broader impact at the societal and economical levels. Investment and insurance related decisions are affected by climate change, and our ability to project the geological activities is of paramount importance for the economy and public safety. This work can thus provide tools to assess the risks and hazards associated with the trend of geological activities with surface temperature rise.

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