Abstract
The ecophysiological crop model, ORYZA1, was used to predict changes in potential yield for both primary and secondary planting seasons using weather data from nine locations in India, viz., Aduthurai, Bijapur, Coimbatore, Cuttack, Hyderabad, Kapurthala, Pattambi, Madurai and Patancheru representing major rice growing regions located in six different Agroecological Zones by the FAO classification. Simulation results indicated a substantial increase in the grain yield of +25.5% in GFDL, +28.2% in GISS and +28.4% in UKMO scenarios especially in the primary planting season, when averaged across sites. Greater yield reduction was noticed in the secondary planting season irrespective of the GCMs used, the higher reduction being -43.3% under the GISS scenario. Possible climatological and agro-physiological factors responsible for these yield differences have been discussed. Despite these yield differences, annual national production is predicted to increase in all the three GCMs studied.
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