Ricardian equivalence and fiscal distortions in the Dominican Republic

Abstract

This paper tests the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in the context of the Dominican Republic (DR). The results rejected the Ricardian theorem but a weaker version is shown to have significant implications for the DR. If the government borrows to increase spending, private consumption is crowded out and the economy will suffer in the long run. The outcome is worst if the government borrows to deliver a tax cut. In particular, for every RD$ 1.00 of additional debt incurred to finance government primary spending, private consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) fall by a meaningful RD$ 2.15 and RD$ 1.15 respectively. If the debt is used to finance the tax cut, the fall is RD$ 2.15 in both consumption and output. Interestingly, if the government uses taxes to cover a budget deficit, the effect is neutral and consistent with Ricardian equivalence. The paper argues that fiscal distortions are in part responsible for these multipliers. Distortions are estimated to be 21 % coming from different sources including taxes evasion and fiscal drainage. These findings suggest that the DR could benefit from either reducing the level of fiscal distortions or the size and scope of the Dominican government. If, however, the government continues to pursue an active fiscal role under the current environment, it will generate an unnecessary burden to consumption and economic growth.