Rhapsody in Beige: The Impact of SPD Candidate Evaluations on Vote Choice in the 2009, 2013, and 2017 Federal Elections

Abstract

Previous research has shown that in addition to party identification chancellor candidate evaluations play an important role in determining vote choice in German federal elections. In this article, we evaluate the impact that such evaluations had on vote choice in 2009, 2013, and 2017 using the German Longitudinal Election Study. In contrast to a popular narrative that Chancellor Merkel was less of a factor in 2017 than she had been in the two previous elections where the Union parties ran especially personalised campaigns around Merkel, we find that the Kanzlerbonus (incumbency benefit) and Merkel’s attractiveness to voters was strong in all three elections, especially among non-party identifiers. More importantly, we find that increasingly the Social Democrats had chancellor candidates unattractive to voters and perceived as bland across all of these elections, and demonstrate that this was a factor which significantly weakened their vote. Thus we conclude that beyond the structural weaknesses of the Social Democrats over the last three election cycles the lack of appeal of the party’s chancellor candidates has played a significant role in the SPD’s lack of electoral success.