Abstract
The factors of reward and punishment in war preparations and the initiation of war are explored. Three dimensions in the provision of reward and punishment are specified: the status dimension, the temporal dimension, and the probability of positive or aversive consequences. The probabilities of rewards and punishments are greatly unequal for leaders, elites, and masses. Rewards for war preparations are supplied immediately, whereas punishments from war are mostly delayed. Punishments inflicted by one's own government for noncooperation are immediate and certain whereas those inflicted by “the enemy” are delayed and only probabilistic. It is argued that the web of these contingencies has systematically over millennia inhibited the learning of new ways to cope with the scourge of war.
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