Revisiting US–China strategic competition in Central Asia and its impact on Pakistan

Abstract

Since the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, the US, and China are aspiring to enhance their strategic influence in Central Asia which has recently been intensified due to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Further, China has also increased its influence in Central Asia through regional organizations such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Against this backdrop, Pakistan emerged as an important pivot of China's BRI where the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project. This study begins with a theoretical debate of Heartland theory of Halford John Mackinder and the later version of Heartland theory into Rimland theory by Nicolas Spykman, which explains the geopolitical significance of Central Asia for Major Powers. Within this theoretical context, the study discusses China and the US grand strategies in Central Asia in the form of China's BRI, SCO and the US counter‐strategies such as from phase 1.0, policy to 2.0, policy, and the recent initiative of C5 + 1. The study finds out that US–China strategic competition will have implications for various states having relations with both of these two major powers. In case of Pakistan, the strategic competition between China and the US will affect various dimensions of Pakistan's security at the broader level such as political, military, and economic security. First, at the political level, it is affecting Pakistan's relations with Russia, China, Iran, and Gulf States. Second, at military level, Pakistan's strategic value has been enhanced as a frontline state against terrorism. Finally, at the economic level, CPEC provides opportunities for Pakistan's economy and regional connectivity.