Revisiting the Tidal Activation of Seismicity with a Damage Mechanics and Friction Point of View

Abstract

— The Load Unload Response Ratio theory (LURR) puts forward the idea that the ratio of seismicity during times of increased tidal loading to times of decreased tidal loading takes on anomalously large values as the preparatory region of the earthquake approaches a critical state. We repeated the calculations of LURR for several earthquakes in California, for which results had been published, using estimates of the parameters which could be determined from the published work. We were unable to confirm any LURR ratio predictive significance. We test an alternative method of evaluating the influence of tidal stresses on earthquakes based on damage mechanics. As in rock mechanics experiments, it may be that anomalous activation of seismicity prior to large earthquakes occurs only during those time intervals when the applied stress exceeds values previously attained. We applied this approach to analyze the same data set used to test the LURR hypothesis, and it also failed to reveal any significant precursory indications. It may be that time-dependent failure processes such as self-driven nucleation occur on a time scale longer than the diurnal tide, thus destroying the expected synchronization.