Revisiting the observability and identifiability properties of a popular HIV model

Abstract

This paper revisits the observability and identifiability properties of a popular ODE model commonly adopted to characterize the HIV dynamics in HIV-infected patients with antiretroviral treatment. These properties are determined by using the general analytical solution of the unknown input observability problem, introduced very recently in Martinelli (2022). This solution provides the systematic procedures able to determine the state observability and the parameter identifiability of any ODE model, in particular, even in the presence of time varying parameters. Four variants of the HIV model are investigated. They differ because some of their parameters are considered constant or time varying. Fundamental new properties, which also highlight an error in the scientific literature, are automatically determined and discussed. Additionally, for each variant, the paper provides a quantitative answer to the following practical question: What is the minimal external information (external to the available measurements of the system outputs) required to make observable the state and identifiable all the model parameters? The answer to this fundamental question is obtained by exploiting the concept of continuous symmetry, recently introduced in Martinelli (2019). This concept allows us to determine a first preliminary general result which is then applied to the HIV model. Finally, for each variant, the paper concludes by providing a redefinition of the state and of the parameters in order to obtain a full description of the system only in terms of a state which is observable and a set of parameters which are identifiable (both constant and time varying).