Revisiting the Energy Trilemma in the European Union

Abstract

As a response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the heads of state or government of the EU member states met in the Palace of Versailles to consider a historic decision to end EU dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal imports. The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia had announced energy embargos on Russia, and many expected the EU to follow suit, but this was not possible due to the complex decision-making in the EU. Instead, what was agreed was the REPowerEU Plan, setting out the European Commission's strategy of diversifying gas supplies, switching to renewables and hydrogen, improving energy efficiency, and mitigating the impact of rising energy prices. The Plan attempts to fit into the broader context of the Paris Agreement, the EU Green Deal, the EU's ‘Fit for 55’ framework and the EU law for climate neutrality. The gravity of the current situation is illustrated by the arrangements being put in place to prepare for a complete cut-off of Russian gas exports and by restarting the burning of coal, an energy source that Europe had recently consigned to history. This paper reviews the REPowerEU Plan and recent key proposals in the electricity and gas sectors from a policy and legal perspective. It is structured in three parts corresponding to the familiar notion of the energy trilemma: affordability, security and sustainability. REPowerEU is about rapidly reducing dependency on Russian fossil fuels by fast forwarding the clean transition to deliver affordable, secure and sustainable energy. Its goals might initially suggest that a new energy theorem is being launched, but this paper will argue that, in the EU context at least, the classic energy trilemma persists, and indeed is more acute in its effects than ever before.