Revisiting the 2015 Mw=8.3 Illapel earthquake: Unveiling complex fault slip properties using Bayesian inversion.

Abstract

The 2015 Mw=8.3 Illapel earthquake is one of the largest megathrust earthquakes that has been recorded along the Chilean subduction zone. Given its magnitude, different rupture scenarios have been obtained. Previous studies show different amounts of shallow slip with some results showing almost no slip at the trench and others showing significant slip at shallow depths, up to 14 meters. In this work, we revisit this event by assembling a comprehensive data set including continuous and survey GNSS measurements corrected for post-seismic and aftershock signals, ascending and descending InSAR images of the Sentinel-1A satellite, tsunami data along with high-rate GPS, and doubly integrated strong-motion waveforms. We follow a Bayesian approach using the AlTar algorithm, in which we aim to obtain the posterior PDF of the joint inversion problem. In addition, we explore a new approach to account for forward problem uncertainties using a second-order perturbation approach. Results show a rupture with two main slip regions, and with significant slip at shallow depth that correlates with outer-rise aftershocks. Furthermore, kinematic models indicate that the rupture is encircling two regions updip of the hypocenter that remain unbroken during the mainshock and its aftershocks. These encircling patterns have been previously suggested by back-projection results but have not been observed in finite-fault slip models. We propose that the encircled regions correspond to barriers that can potentially be related to secondary fracture zones in the Chilean subduction zone.