Revisiting sectarianism in Iraq: Changing attitudes of Sunnis and Shias towards voting, social trust and government

Abstract

After 2003, Iraq experienced political, social and violent sectarianism. Scholars who studied sectarianism in Iraq tried to explain it through events, narratives and official statements. However, it has not been possible to understand the impact of the sectarian identity of Sunnis and Shias on their political and social behaviour. This study aims to measure that impact by asking: how has sectarianism changed in Iraq over time from the perspective of public opinion – increase or decrease, and why? For a deeper understanding, some demographic factors, such as age, education and gender, are considered to measure how the sectarian identity has affected the behaviour of Iraqis in voting, interpersonal trust, and trusting the government and the army. By using the surveys conducted by the Arab Barometer from 2011 to 2022, it was possible to compare the responses of the public by sect and have interesting findings. In general, Sunnis and Shias have exchanged their roles after 2013. Until 2013, Shias had tended to vote and trust local and national governments more than Sunnis. However, since 2019, the surveys show that Sunnis have had greater rates of voting and trust those governments than the Shias. Also, since 2019, the interpersonal trust between Sunnis and Shias has improved more than before, which can support the social cohesion between people who belong to different sects.