Revisiting probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Gujarat: an assessment of Indian design spectra

Abstract

Seismic hazard assessment is the key tool for rational planning, safety and design of infrastructures in seismically vulnerable regions. Gujarat is the only state in peninsular India with the maximum seismic hazard of large shallow earthquakes originating from intra-plate seismicity. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Gujarat is carried out in this paper. Three seismogenic sources, namely Kutch, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat, are considered, and seismicity parameters are estimated separately for each region taking into account the completeness of the available earthquake data. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the horizontal component and spectral acceleration at specific periods are considered as the intensity measures. Ground motion predictive equation chosen was reported to be based on simulated ground motions and verified against the strong motion records in the study region. Results are reported for the 17 major cities at the bedrock and also for the soil sites. Apart from hazard curves, 2475 and 475 years of return periods are considered for the PGA and uniform hazard spectra (UHS). The results are compared with the present recommendations of Indian Standards. Key observations include (1) Indian Standards underpredict PGA in the entire Gujarat when the soil sites are considered and in a few cities even at the bedrock; (2) amplification of PGA (or short period hazard) on account of soil sites should be included in the Indian Standard, which is currently absent; (3) shape of the UHS indicates that a separate amplification is required at the hyperbolic portion; and (4) ratio of 2475–475 years of PGA, which is considered 2.0 in Indian Standard, should be reduced to 1.5. Time-dependent recurrence model is also included in this paper and compared with conventional PSHA. General observations include that (1) hazard may increase significantly on account of time dependency; (2) this also influences the disaggregation and in turn the selection of ground motions; and (3) time since last earthquake significantly influences the extent of the effect of time dependency.