Revisiting predictive bias of cognitive ability tests against Hispanic American job applicants

Abstract

AbstractPrevious studies have concluded that cognitive ability tests are not predictively biased against Hispanic American job applicants because test scores generally overpredict, rather than underpredict, their job performance. However, we highlight two important shortcomings of these past studies and use meta‐analytic and computation modeling techniques to address these two shortcomings. In Study 1, an updated meta‐analysis of the Hispanic–White mean difference (d‐value) on job performance was carried out. In Study 2, computation modeling was used to correct the Study 1 d‐values for indirect range restriction and combine them with other meta‐analytic parameters relevant to predictive bias to determine how often cognitive ability test scores underpredict Hispanic applicants’ job performance. Hispanic applicants’ job performance was underpredicted by a small to moderate amount in most conditions of the computation model. In contrast to previous studies, this suggests cognitive ability tests can be expected to exhibit predictive bias against Hispanic applicants much of the time. However, some conditions did not exhibit underprediction, highlighting that predictive bias depends on various selection system parameters, such as the criterion‐related validity of cognitive ability tests and other predictors used in selection. Regardless, our results challenge “lack of predictive bias” as a rationale for supporting test use.