Abstract
SummaryThis article examines the dynamic relationship between the consumption of goods and services, technological efficiency, and associated resource use, as described by the theory of Jevons’ Paradox (JP). A theory is presented about what causes JP, in which resource efficiency savings are eventually overtaken by increases in consumption to produce a net increase in resource use and therefore environmental impacts. An application of the theory was carried out using system dynamics, modeling carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2‐eq) emissions from private road transport in the UK between 1970 and 2010. The model results indicate the approximate impact of JP within the historical period: a rise in travel consumption of approximately one half and a rise in CO2‐eq emissions of approximately one third. The model was used to estimate whether the European Union (EU) goal of a 40% drop in CO2‐eq emissions by 2030 is achievable in the road transport sector, by adding interventions, and the results indicate that higher increases in fleet efficiency than are currently forecast, costlier travel, and a reduction in travel consumption would all be required. The theory and model presented in this article highlight the need to implement a system of interventions that can influence the strength and direction of each of the feedback loops within the system being intervened with, if CO2‐eq emissions are to be more reliably reduced than they are at present. Further, because the system is constantly evolving, intervening with it requires a responsive, holistic approach, while maintaining focus on a long‐term goal.
Highlights
The need to reduce the Environmental Impacts (EI) of human activities has been firmly established by science, yet EI continue to grow broadly in line with economic activity
The Structural Rebound (SR) model was calibrated to historical data (1970 to 2010) and the No Rebound (NR) model was developed as a version of the SR model with the effects of rebound taken out
Model results indicate that the approximate impact of Jevons’ Paradox (JP) within the historical period was a rise in travel consumption of about a half and a rise in CO2e emissions of about a third
Summary
The need to reduce the Environmental Impacts (EI) of human activities has been firmly established by science, yet EI continue to grow broadly in line with economic activity. One of the most common solutions put forward is to “decouple” resource use, and associated EI, from economic activity through eco-efficiency. Efforts to achieve absolute decoupling can be undermined by different forms of rebound, a mechanism whereby part, or sometimes all, of the savings in resource use gained through efficiency are “taken back” when users increase their consumption of goods and services. This happens because ‘technological improvements evoke behavioral responses’ (Binswanger 2001). This behavioral response appears as a gap between the expected drop in resource use from eco-efficiency investment and actual resource savings, called the Gross Rebound Effect (Vehmas et al 2004)
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