Revisiting economic growth and CO2 emissions nexus in Taiwan using a mixed-frequency VAR model

Abstract

This study, for the first time in Taiwan, uses the mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model in the high-frequency dataset to investigate the causal association between economic progress and carbon dioxide emissions over time periods spanning from 1970Q1-2019Q4. This study also includes primary energy consumption as a control variable for analysis since the bias of missing variables could lead to misleading results. In accordance with the forecast error variance decomposition and the Granger causality test, our empirical findings imply that the MF-VAR model has more explanatory power than the traditional VAR model. The empirical LF-VAR model results demonstrate a reciprocal and causal association between economic progress and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is supported by evidence; primary energy consumption significantly influences economic progress. Additionally, MF-VAR model results also indicate, in Taiwan, a reciprocal and causal association between economic progress and carbon dioxide emissions as well as between primary energy consumption and economic progress. Based on the finding of the results, this study suggests policy implications to the government that an effective energy strategy should be addressed along with the plan for economic development in Taiwan.