Revision, Weighting, and commitment in consensus group judgment

Abstract

This study investigates group members' estimates of unknown quantities and their confidence in those estimates in the context of a Revision and Weighting Model of consensus group judgment. In this model, revision refers to the individual process of changing an initial individual judgment as a result of social interaction. In contrast, weighting is the group process of combining revised individual judgments into a single group judgment. Results replicate the findings of J. A. Sniezek and R. A. Henry ( Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1989) by showing group judgments to be (a) more accurate than individual judgments and (b) often outside the range of the group members' individual judgments. Both of these phenomena occurred during the act of setting the group consensus price estimate, i.e., the weighting process. In contrast, the revision process resulted in little change in members' judgments, but showed some evidence of increasing their confidence in those judgments. There was some indication that it was advantageous for group members to form individual judgments prior to the formation of a group judgment. In general, group members demonstrated high commitment to their group estimates.