Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (The Bahamas) over the last 700\xa0years

Tyler S Winkler,Nancy A Albury,Dana Macdonald,Jeffrey P Donnelly,Peter J Van Hengstum,Elizabeth J Wallace,Richard M Sullivan

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-73132-x

Abstract

The northern Bahamas have experienced more frequent intense-hurricane impacts than almost anywhere else in the Atlantic since 1850 CE. In 2019, category 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the destructive potential of these natural hazards. Problematically, determining whether high hurricane activity levels remained constant through time is difficult given the short observational record (< 170 years). We present a 700-year long, near-annually resolved stratigraphic record of hurricane passage near Thatchpoint Blue Hole (TPBH) on Abaco Island, The Bahamas. Using longer sediment cores (888 cm) and more reliable age-control, this study revises and temporally expands a previous study from TPBH that underestimated the sedimentation rate. TPBH records at least 13 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century between 1500 to 1670 CE, which exceeds the 9 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century within 50 km of TPBH since 1850 CE. The eastern United States also experienced frequent hurricanes from 1500 to 1670 CE, but frequency was depressed elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. This suggests that spatial heterogeneity in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1850 CE could have persisted throughout the last millennium. This heterogeneity is impacted by climatic and stochastic forcing, but additional high-resolution paleo-hurricane reconstructions are required to assess the mechanisms that impact regional variability.

Highlights

The northern Bahamas has been a hurricane hotspot during the observational period (1850 CE to present) with some of the highest incidence of hurricane passage in the North Atlantic Ocean (~ 13 ≥ category 2 events within 50 km of any point in the northern Bahamas, Fig. 1) These storms primarily formed in the Main Development region (MDR)[1,2,3] before tracking westward to the northern Bahamas (Fig. 4b–e), causing devastating wind and flood damage to Abaco Island and Grand Bahama Island, before they track northwards into higher latitudes (Figs. 2, 4b-e)[1, 2]
We document that Great Abaco Island on the Little Bahama Bank experienced at least 18 intense hurricane strikes from 1500 to 1670 CE by developing a near annuallyresolved record of hurricane passage from the sediment preserved in Thatchpoint Blue Hole (TPBH)
It is highly unlikely that tsunamis or earthquakes generated tempestites in TPBH because the northern Bahamas are positioned along a passive North American margin that has likely been tectonically stable during the Quaternary p eriod[47], and there is no record of significant tsunami impacts in this region in recent history[48, 49]

Summary

Introduction

The northern Bahamas has been a hurricane hotspot during the observational period (1850 CE to present) with some of the highest incidence of hurricane passage in the North Atlantic Ocean (~ 13 ≥ category 2 events within 50 km of any point in the northern Bahamas, Fig. 1) These storms primarily formed in the Main Development region (MDR)[1,2,3] before tracking westward to the northern Bahamas (Fig. 4b–e), causing devastating wind and flood damage to Abaco Island and Grand Bahama Island, before they track northwards into higher latitudes (Figs. 2, 4b-e)[1, 2]. We document that Great Abaco Island on the Little Bahama Bank experienced at least 18 intense hurricane strikes (minimum estimate, based on uncertainties) from 1500 to 1670 CE by developing a near annuallyresolved record of hurricane passage from the sediment preserved in Thatchpoint Blue Hole (TPBH). This period from 1500 to 1670 CE (duration: 170 years), documents a minimum level of hurricane activity that exceeds the Scientific Reports | (2020) 10:16556 |

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Discussion

Conclusion