Abstract
After predicting in November 1995 that the 1996 hurricane season would be less active than the typical year (Eos, December 12, 1995), William Gray and his colleagues from Colorado State University have revised their forecast. Plugging updated atmospheric data into their statistical model, the researchers are now predicting seven hurricanes—two of them intense (category 3, 4, or 5)—and 11 named storms for the summer and fall of 1996. Net tropical cyclone activity for the hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to December 1, should be 105% of the 25‐year average, according to Gray.In November, Gray and Chris Landsea of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division predicted eight tropical storms and five hurricanes (two intense), less than the historical averages of 9.3 named storms and 5.7 hurricanes per season. The change in expectations is the result of new accounting for trends in temperature and barometric pressure in Africa and around the Atlantic Basin.
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