Abstract
Energy forecasters agree on broad policy directions, but they fail to detail rational plans and end up disagreeing on specific political, social, and institutional issues. Several recent publications illustrate the lack of consensus on the character of the 1973-74 oil crisis except to say that only cheap oil is running out, that conventional oil production may have already peaked, that producing countries will restrict supplies, and that global demand will continue to grow. A comparison of several studies shows disagreement on long-term goals and the policies required to meet those goals. Analysts seem unable to deal with conflicting real world interests, as evident in the debate over price decontrol, that politicians face daily. Analysts tend to ignore the questions of equity and consistency which are basic to decision making. Future studies could deal with things which really matter by starting with future energy supplies and analyzing how to adjust demand rather than trying to find the supplies to meet projected demand. (DCK)
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