Reviewing the potential and cost-effectiveness of off-grid PV systems in Indonesia on a provincial level

Abstract

In this study the amount and costs of off-grid PV systems required to electrify Indonesian rural households lacking electricity access are estimated. Due to the Indonesian geography large differences exist among different provinces, therefore this study evaluates the potential and costs of off-grid PV systems for each province as a follow-up of a related study on grid-connected PV systems which we executed in 2012. In this study we calculate cumulative numbers for the nominal power of installed off-grid PV systems, their LCOE and the relative financial benefits compared with diesel generators, which are a common means for electricity generation in remote areas.To determine this potential, a mathematical model has been developed which is based on available data on among others population density, urbanisation ratio, irradiation, electrification ratio and electricity demand.We distinguished between stand-alone and hybrid PV systems. Results show that the costs of off-grid hybrid PV systems with an average LCOE of 0.38USD/kWh are 19% cheaper compared with electricity generation by diesel gensets in most rural parts of Indonesia. Stand-alone PV systems show an average LCOE of 0.76USD/kWh which is 3% cheaper than stand-alone diesel gensets on average. The potential of off-grid PV systems is 969GWh/year, of which 566GWh/year generated by hybrid PV systems and 403GWh/year by stand-alone PV systems.