Abstract
This paper reviews the interactions between conflict and demographic trends in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT), and provides an analysis of The Gaza Strip. Palestinian society has experienced momentous demographic transition over the past century, as well as recurrent waves of displacement and outbreaks of conflict and violence over the last decade. The enclave has witnessed demographic changes, with the emergence and rule of Hamas, repeated wars, and, since 2007, the unlawful blockade of The Gaza Strip. The United Nations (UN) has warned that, living conditions in Gaza are deteriorating faster than forecast, and are predicted to become dire by 2020. This paper provides a brief review of theories linking conflict and demography, followed by an introduction to the historical and contemporary context of The Gaza Strip. An in-depth analysis of the impact that conflict has on the demographic structure of Palestinian society in The Gaza Strip, focusing on the factors behind high fertility rates, population growth trends, and the drivers of migration. The analysis offered builds upon interviews with Palestinian experts, and Palestinian asylum-seekers in Greece, Poland, U.K. and Sweden, in addition to data published by the Palestinian Statistics Bureau Centre and research articles focusing on The Gaza Strip. The paper concludes that, the Palestinian reconciliation agreement should take priority over the population and the economy.
Highlights
Huntington (1993) posits that, the demographic factor is the primary cause of conflict in the post-Cold War era; demographic changes often play a conspicuous role in political violence
Goldstone (2002) elaborates on the fact that, high population growth is not directly related to the probability of stimulating risks, arguing that, it is necessary to take into consideration other factors such as urbanisation that exceeds the employment rate, and migration flows that affect the local balance of indigenous ethnic groups - each increases the prospect of internal conflicts
Population pressure, combined with the lack of employment opportunities, and pervasive poverty arising from the Israeli blockade, recurring wars and military assaults, limited resources and territorial isolation, together exert an immense strain on the welfare, public services, social and political institutions, and the natural resources in Gaza, which are already inadequate for the needs of the population
Summary
Huntington (1993) posits that, the demographic factor is the primary cause of conflict in the post-Cold War era; demographic changes often play a conspicuous role in political violence. Advocates of this point of view argue that, in conflict zones, family income declines and the support from extended families ceases This phenomenon is accompanied by an increase in food and commodity prices, and couples become aware of the costs associated with additional children (Rutenberg and Diamond, 1993); on the other hand, there are authors who believe that conflict does not have an impact on fertility rates. Goldstone (2002) elaborates on the fact that, high population growth is not directly related to the probability of stimulating risks, arguing that, it is necessary to take into consideration other factors such as urbanisation that exceeds the employment rate, and migration flows that affect the local balance of indigenous ethnic groups - each increases the prospect of internal conflicts. Migration may strengthen or weaken national power, alter a country’s ethnic or communal composition, or trigger resource scarcities – indirectly causing conflict
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