Abstract
The operation of the integrated energy system will be affected by uncertainties, leading to sub-optimal design decisions. Accurate and effective modeling of these uncertainties is essential to ensure the optimal integration of renewable energy in the integrated energy system. This article first gives the basic optimal operation model of the integrated energy system, and analyzes various uncertain factors in the optimal operation of the integrated energy system. The source side mainly considers the intermittent and volatility of renewable energy output. The load side mainly considers the uncertainty of load forecast errors. The network side mainly considers the characteristics of equipment under variable conditions, equipment failures, and the uncertainty of the coupling of multi-energy flow systems. The energy storage side mainly considers the uncertainty of mobile energy storage grid connection and virtual energy storage participation in demand response. The multi-energy trading market mainly considers the uncertainty of market trading methods and market operation mechanisms. Then, various integrated energy system uncertainty modeling techniques and solving methods are summarized. Finally, it looks forward to the future research directions and challenges faced by the optimal operation of the integrated energy system under the influence of uncertainty.
Highlights
With the increasing energy crisis and environmental pollution, it is an inevitable trend to make full use of renewable energy
We have conducted a comprehensive review of the main uncertainty categories and uncertainty modeling methods of integrated energy system (IES) optimization operations
The uncertainty categories are roughly divided into the uncertainty of renewable energy output, the uncertainty of equipment operating status and system status, the uncertainty of load forecasting, the uncertainty of mobile/virtual energy storage, the uncertainty of market rules/energy prices
Summary
With the increasing energy crisis and environmental pollution, it is an inevitable trend to make full use of renewable energy. Focusing on the above-mentioned difficulties, this paper conducts a systematic and critical review of existing research from three aspects: source-network-load-storage and multienergy market uncertainties, IES uncertainty modeling, and model solution methods. It focuses on the main principles, applications and limitations of various uncertainty modeling methods of IES.
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