Review of Three Small-Satellite Cost Models

Abstract

The problem of estimating costs for small satellites is more vexing than it would seem. Small satellites, as described here, generally weigh less than 1,000 pounds, and are sometimes much smaller and significantly different from much of what exists now. Costing these kinds of satellites is not simply a matter of scaling down from larger systems. It requires incorporation of new data sets and consideration of new modeling methods. The challenge of addressing small-satellite development is important, considering the emerging priority for developing much smaller, modular or interactive space systems. This paper introduces three related efforts to advance the state of small-satellite cost estimating. First is the Small Satellite Cost Working Group championed by the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center to bring together the various entities and organizations that have a stake in this challenge. Second is the Small Satellite Cost Model in development by The Aerospace Corporation. Third is the Demonstration Satellite Cost Model, the National Reconnaissance Office’s (NRO) parametric tool for one-of-a-kind, short-design-life satellites. This paper summarizes efforts and discusses remaining issues, focusing on the goal of improving the capabilities for small-satellite costing, which has become of compelling and common interest. These efforts are in response, in part, to two factors. One is intense congressional pressure to have missions accomplished by smaller, lighter, and less expensive satellites. The second comprises new ways of doing business, now possible and being advanced by the space industry at large.