Review of the History of Mesoscale Convective System Forecasts on Aviation

Abstract

Airports are important national resources, and Aviation Weather Services are critical to the aviation industry's success. According to the National Transportation Safety Board's (NTSB) analysis of weather-related circumstances that influence near- surface aircraft operations, wind and turbulence caused 1381 accidents, visibility, ceiling height (hc), and precipitation-related accidents occurred 485 times, and aircraft icing caused 150 accidents between 2003 and 2007. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) arise when cumulonimbus clouds merge into a single entity that can span hundreds of miles and continue for hours, posing a higher threat to aviation due to its size and duration. The mesoscale downdraft of a squall-line MCS's stratiform area sometimes merges with the convective downdrafts in the leading line of convection, and these mergers can produce strong effects, with the gust front surging forward and triggering new convection in the form of a “bow echo," according to Doppler radar. Bow echo events are of particular concern to forecasters because they are typically associated with strong, damaging surface winds. Because MCSs are still a major socioeconomic issue, it's critical to construct climate models that incorporate them, whether through cloud-resolving modeling or parameterization. MCS characteristics are influenced by the increasingly contaminated aerosol environment in most parts of the world, and as the Earth warms, MCS patterns will certainly change.