Review of Geodetic and Geologic Deformation Models for 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract

ABSTRACT We review five deformation models generated for the 2023 update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), which provide input fault-slip rates that drive the rate of earthquake moment release. Four of the deformation models use the Global Positioning System-derived surface velocity field and geologic slip-rate data to derive slip-rate estimates (Evans, Pollitz, Shen-Bird, and Zeng), and one model uses geologic data (the “geologic model”). The correlation between the geologic model preferred slip rates and geodetically derived slip rates is high for the Pollitz, Zeng, and Shen-Bird models, and the median of all slip-rate models has correlation coefficient of 0.88. The median geodetic model slip rates are systematically lower than the preferred geologic model rates for faults with slip rates exceeding 10 mm/yr and systematically higher on faults with slip rates less than 0.1 mm/yr. Geodetically derived slip rates tend to the low end of the geologic model range along sections of the San Andreas fault and the Garlock fault, whereas they tend to be higher across north coast California faults. The total on-fault moment rates agree well across models with all rates within 18% of the median. Estimated off-fault strain rate orientations and styles vary considerably across models and off-fault moment rates vary more than on-fault moment rates. Path integrals across the western U.S. accounting for fault-slip rate and off-fault deformation are generally consistent with Pacific-North America plate motion with the median deformation rates recovering about 98% of the plate motion with about 20% of the total plate motion accommodated by off-fault strain rate. The geologic model, which has no off-fault deformation, accounts for about 82% of plate motion with fault slip. Finally, we make a recommendation for relative weighting of the models for the NSHM as well as several recommendations for future NSHM deformation model development.