Abstract
Abstract. Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete data sets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing uncertainties linked to these processes.
Highlights
Climate change is widely anticipated to exacerbate water stress in central Asia in the near future (Siegfried et al, 2012), as the vast majority of the arid lowlands in the region are highly dependent on glacier meltwater supplied by the Tienshan Mountains, which are known as the “water tower” of central Asia (Hagg et al, 2007; Sorg et al, 2012; Lutz et al, 2014)
If the warming projections developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prove to be true, the glacierized river systems in central Asia will undergo unfavorable hydrological changes, e.g., altered seasonality, increased flood risk, higher and intense spring discharge and water deficiency, in hot and dry summer periods, especially given the sharp rise in water demand (Hagg et al, 2006; Siegfried et al, 2012)
We review hydrological modeling efforts in five major river basins originating from the Tienshan Mountains in central Asia, namely, the Tarim River basin, the watersheds in the northern slope of the Tienshan Mountains, the Issyk Lake basin, the Ili River basin, and the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins (Fig. 1)
Summary
Climate change is widely anticipated to exacerbate water stress in central Asia in the near future (Siegfried et al, 2012), as the vast majority of the arid lowlands in the region are highly dependent on glacier meltwater supplied by the Tienshan Mountains, which are known as the “water tower” of central Asia (Hagg et al, 2007; Sorg et al, 2012; Lutz et al, 2014). As conflicts between political states may arise for any number of reasons (political, cultural, etc.), transboundary issues may result in fragmented research and limit the development of hydrological modeling Amid this potential hindrance to robust research efforts, the effect of climate change on glaciers, permafrost and snow cover is having increasing impacts on runoff in glacierized central Asian catchments. We review hydrological modeling efforts in five major river basins originating from the Tienshan Mountains in central Asia, namely, the Tarim River basin, the watersheds in the northern slope of the Tienshan Mountains (which includes several small river basins), the Issyk Lake basin, the Ili River basin, and the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins (Fig. 1) Snow and glacial melt as supplies of solid water is a key element in streamflow regimes (Lutz et al, 2014); it is necessary to include glacier mass balance estimates in the model calibration procedure (Schaefli et al, 2005; Stahl et al, 2008; Konz and Seibert, 2010; Mayr et al, 2013)
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