Abstract
With the changing climate and declining extent of sea ice, the activities in the Arctic region have become increasing significantly. Compared to the environments with ice-free waters, the harsh environment in the Arctic is due to ice, low temperatures, remoteness, etc., all of which will complicate ship operations. Research on the shipping risk analysis in ice-covered waters is important because such research can improve the management of shipping businesses and aid accident prevention initiatives in the Arctic. In this paper, we systematically review and compare risk models for shipping in ice-covered waters to report experiences in the field and to identify existing knowledge gaps. This work provides a broad review and comparison of the state-of-the-art risk analysis models by considering the models’ purposes, theoretical frameworks, risk factors, and outputs, and it includes an analysis of the field-specific terminology that is used to define accidents. The results indicate that the risk analysis of the Arctic faces challenges, as a complete overview of accident data is not easy to find. There has been significantly less research done on convoy operations in ice and overtaking and meeting in an ice channel. In addition, interactions between risk factors and human factors are not sufficiently understood and thus need to be further studied. Being familiar with knowledge gaps acts as a catalyst for further research on risk analysis within shipping in Arctic conditions.
Highlights
Statistical data reported by the Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Working Group show that the total distance sailed by all types of vessels increased by 75% in the Arctic from 2013 to 2019 (PAME, 2020), while harsh environmental conditions, e.g., ice, extremely low temperatures, darkness, thick ice, etc., complicated ship operations
A summary of the reviewed literature is given in Appendix A, including information on the theoretical approach to risk analysis, the geographical area of application, the accident type, risk factors, the availability of an uncertainty analysis, and the input data for the model
We have systematically reviewed and compared risk analysis models applied within shipping in ice-covered waters to summarize the expe rience in the field and to identify existing knowledge gaps
Summary
Statistical data reported by the Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Working Group show that the total distance sailed by all types of vessels increased by 75% in the Arctic from 2013 to 2019 (PAME, 2020), while harsh environmental conditions, e.g., ice, extremely low temperatures, darkness, thick ice, etc., complicated ship operations. High-latitude Arctic marine ecosystems are vulnerable, and the capability of search and rescue is low in the Arctic, which implies that the consequences of ship accidents resulting in oil spills may be very serious (Kujala et al, 2019a). Risk analysis is a way of identifying and assessing factors that could negatively affect the success of a project. This analysis allows one to examine the risks and helps to decide whether to move forward with a decision
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