Revenue implications to the Vietnamese government of using taxes to curb cigarette smoking

Abstract

This study explores the impact on government taxation revenue from increasing excise on cigarettes in Vietnam. A dynamic population model is used to estimate future patterns (both prevalence and consumption) of tobacco use in Vietnam, with and without changes to tobacco excise for the period 2006–2016. Three increases in the base case excise tax rate of 55% are modelled: 65%, 75% and 90%. Various price elasticities are used to examine variations in cigarette consumption while cross price elasticities are used to explore shifts from cigarette to other forms of tobacco. Revenue implications for the period 2006–2016 are reported as discounted net present values (NPV) in 2006 values. The model predicts that smoking rates in 2016, for both males and females, are marginally lower than base case estimates for all taxation excise options with higher price elasticities generating greater reductions in prevalence. In all cases, compared to base case estimates, the results indicate a fall in number of smokers, a reduction in amount of tobacco consumed and an increase in overall taxation revenue. The additional gain in government revenue, expressed in NPV terms, ranges from a low of VND 69,579 billion (or USD $4.35 billion) to a high of VND 108,492 billion (or USD $6.79 billion). Increases in tobacco excise provide an opportunity for the Vietnamese government to increase revenue at the same time as reducing tobacco consumption. Further research into the wider social and economic consequences of increasing tobacco excise in Vietnam is warranted.