REVELATION OF ACUTE INTESTINAL INFEKTIONS’ PERIODIC BIORYTHMS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DHE QUOLITATIVE PREVISIONS IN GYUMRI

Abstract

Longtime observations show that epidemical situation in Republic of Armenia has beenand d continues to be difficult /problematic/, particularly in ters of intestinal infections. The naturesof infectious deseases as well as their epidemiological patterns have been changed.Revelation of the periodicity and the anpalysis of the peaks in frequency will help us to make possibleprevissions and insert goal-orientation into the epidemiological control.Taking into consideration etiological, clinical and epidemiological features of intestinal infections duringthe constal analysis of intestinal infection deseases /1977-2011/ over the separate infections of intestinalgroup. We use the method of spectral analysis of the group of harmony and time /variation.We have used the spectral analysis method of the time-series to clarify real epidemiological pattern and tomake predictions, and with the help of Byui-Balo's hidden frequency's revelation method we have redusedthe probability of a possible error bringing the resulted frequency close to the real, natural biorythm.Spectral analysisyears of time series, which characterize the avute intestinal infections, overoll morbidity of34 years allows us to conform /establish/ multirythmical characteristics of epidemiological dynamics. Itturns out, that there is a specific periodicity for the deseases of intestinal group with separate nozologicalgorms.Thus, theoretically, with the help of the above mentioned method, the following periodicity has beenreceived for the total group of intestinal deseases with /- (3,1+2,8) – (3,8+2,2) - 5 - 4,6 - 2,2 - 5,1 - 2,1 - 2,3–year interval, which coincides with the practice activities with - 6 - 6 - 5 - 5 - 2 - 5 - 2 - 2 – regularity.The investigated regularities predict approximate, probable periods /times/ of the risk. It is well known, thatthe periodic increase and decrease of the morbidity is different for the different germs of the infections ofintestinal group. It also has different subspecies of the germ .It should be noted that increases /peaks/ and falls have general tendency to decrease and stabilize for the allintestinal infections in terms of cumulative, namely there are on a lower level, comparate with the previousperiodicity.Biological cycle also depends on climatic factors associated with the improvement of conditions fordevelopment of the germ.Using spectral analysis of time series, risk periods of intestinal separate infections were determined forGyumri, which will be if not flashing, then probably years of high morbidity. According to previsions madeby us, the frequency of separate infections has the following schedule:Only permanent moniitoring and current and deep epidemiological research gives the opportunity to revealdistinct epidemiological regularities.Computer mapping programs, especially Arc View GIS geographical informational system gives such anopportunity. With the help of digital maps resulted from this program, it is possible to get regional andallocation of infections, prevalence of indicators. it's also possible to determine the extent of contamination,which gives the opportunity to make epidemic measures intentional and effective to save means andresources.