Revealing contributions to sulfur dioxide emissions in China: From the dimensions of final demand, driving effect and supply chain

Abstract

More stringent air pollution control measures implemented during the 12th Five-Year Plan period contributed to some achievements on air quality improvement in China. Considering more focus on production-side emissions, it requires to identify what drove changes in pollutant emissions during this period from demand-side. This study is devoted to revealing the contributions to changes in SO2 emissions during 2010-2015 from three dimensions including final demand, driving effect and supply chain. Based on the harmonized input-output framework and emission datasets, demand-driven accounting, structural decomposition analysis and structural path decomposition analysis are conducted progressively. The results indicate that fixed capital formation and exports were the main drivers of demand-driven emissions during the study period, contributing more than 60% in the total. Changes in emission intensity and per capita final demand were the effects with most prohibiting and promoting impacts on emissions, decreasing 9.98 million tons (Mt) and increasing 5.99 Mt, respectively. The supply chain contributed most to increasing emissions was “Manufacture of nonmetallic mineral products → Construction → fixed capital formation” mainly affected by increased emission intensity; that contributed most to decreasing emissions was “Production and Supply of Power and Heat → urban residential consumption” mainly affected by decreased emission intensity. Some policy implications targeting the three dimensions are discussed accordingly. The quantified contributions and uncovered driving mechanism regarding SO2 emissions may assist in facilitating more complete air pollution control strategies from multiple dimensions in the future.