Returns from herding as a function of the social network of agents: a simulation study

Abstract

PurposeThis study combines different perspectives on herding, viewing it as a social network heuristic in comparison to other heuristics. The purpose is to use the heuristic view of herding as found in early literature and test it on grounds of efficiency and payoff, in essence, combining the heuristic and rational agent view of herding. The simulated double auction setting includes agents embedded in a social network, allowing for an examination of herding alongside rational behaviour and imperfect signals.Design/methodology/approachIn each round of the simulation, levels of homophily, density and fractions of types of agents is set and agents are allowed to follow their respective heuristics under those conditions. Characteristics of the social network, such as the size, levels of different homophilies, density and fractions of different types of agents are varied randomly to gauge their effect on the performance of herders vis-à-vis others and the overall market efficiency through simulation based approach. The data used for the study has been developed in Python and linear models are estimated using R.FindingsHerding decreases total surplus in private value double auctions, but herders are not worse off than other agents and perform equally in common value auctions. Further, herders and random offerers reduce payoffs of other agents as well, and herding effects the surplus per transaction and not the quantum.Research limitations/implicationsThis study explores herding as a strategic behaviour coexisting with rationality and other strategies in specific circumstances. It presents intriguing findings on the impact of herding on individual outcomes and market efficiency, raising new avenues for future research. Implication to research includes a dent on the “sieve” argument of markets rooting out irrationality and from it, a policy implication that follows is the need for corrective measures as markets cannot self-correct this, given herders do not perform worse than others.Originality/valueThe study links the phenomenon of herding to the dynamics of social networks and heuristic-based learning mechanisms that sets apart this research from the majority of existing literature, which predominantly conceptualizes herding as an outcome derived from a perfect Bayesian Equilibrium and a rational learning process.