Return-to-normal expectations and investment demand functions

Abstract

This paper analyzes an adjustment-cost model of optimal investment behavior under return-to-normal expectations. The model yields two implications that are of interest for the interpretation of empirical work on investment behavior. One is that the model rationalizes the proposition that only permanent, as distinct from temporary, changes in expected prices will have a strong sustained effect on investment. A second is that the model provides an explanation for the humped-shaped nature of the lag distributions that have been estimated in the empirical literature.