Return period of enhanced gamma ray dose rates: regional differences observed in Japan

Abstract

We estimated the return period of an increased gamma ray dose rate (Delta gamma) derived from (222)Rn progeny deposited with precipitation. The approximate probability distribution for Delta gamma followed a Hazen plot, which is an empirical plotting equation, indicating that the distribution of Delta gamma was approximated by a nearly double-exponential. The distribution of Delta gamma was well represented by the Gumbel distribution, and the return period for Delta gamma was estimated theoretically. There was a notable regional difference in the return period between the coast of the Japan Sea and the inland or Pacific coast areas: the return period for a given Delta gamma at monitoring sites on the Sea of Japan coast was 1.5 to 2.5 times shorter than that in the inland or Pacific coast areas. This variation with locality suggests that the rate of wet-deposition of (222)Rn progeny is larger at sites on the Sea of Japan coast than inland or on the Pacific coast areas. The expected return period for the maximum Delta gamma at each site was about 10 years. This estimation of the return period of Delta gamma is a novel approach to the study of environmental science in fields such as radioactivity.