Abstract
To propose a measure (index) of expected risks to evaluate and follow up the performance analysis of research projects involving financial and adequate structure parameters for its development. A ranking of acceptable results regarding research projects with complex variables was used as an index to gauge a project performance. In order to implement this method the ulcer index as the basic model to accommodate the following variables was applied: costs, high impact publication, fund raising, and patent registry. The proposed structured analysis, named here as RoSI (Return on Scientific Investment) comprises a pipeline of analysis to characterize the risk based on a modeling tool that comprises multiple variables interacting in semi-quantitatively environments. This method was tested with data from three different projects in our Institution (projects A, B and C). Different curves reflected the ulcer indexes identifying the project that may have a minor risk (project C) related to development and expected results according to initial or full investment. The results showed that this model contributes significantly to the analysis of risk and planning as well as to the definition of necessary investments that consider contingency actions with benefits to the different stakeholders: the investor or donor, the project manager and the researchers.
Highlights
Science outcomes can be described by creation, discovery, experimentation, reorganization and knowledge dissemination related to physics, biology and social natures(1)
In the following paragraphs we provide the basis of our motivation to the work presented
The ulcer index was calculated for projects A, B and C at each semester
Summary
Science outcomes can be described by creation, discovery, experimentation, reorganization and knowledge dissemination related to physics, biology and social natures(1). The current methods to evaluate science – scientometrics research – are aimed at qualifying and/or quantifying science impacts on human society It is based on logic and data mining (economical indexes are rarely used). It adapts certain variables linked with past performance obtained from scientists or their research group recordings with the aim of evaluating the risk of new research proposals. Technology is a better contained concept, it can be defined as a process designed to convert information in novel products It comprehends every single instrument, technique, product or proceeding, equipment or method to build or assemble and increase human capacity(3). Almost all technological outcomes or products are much better defined and well established: patents, royalties and process applications are part of our society. It is essential to point out that the patent system is the finest manner to protect technological developments in every country or region
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