Return-Migration, Race, and Political Trust

Abstract

Prior to Hurricane Katrina, the City of New Orleans was represented entirely by Black public officials. Five years after Hurricane Katrina, none of the elected officials representing New Orleans were Black. Due to the same hurricane, the return-migration of Whites was at times more than 40% higher than that of Blacks. Before we can ask whether the demographic and representational changes in race are linked, we must ask whether there is a political reason Blacks return-migrate at different rates from non-Blacks. This paper asks that question, and finds that political trust is the mechanism through which race affects return-migration among disaster evacuees. After accounting for economic, class-based, and other influences on return-migration and political trust, there are no race-based differences in return-migration patterns. But since Blacks are more likely to have low levels of political trust, and those with lower political trust are less likely to return, Blacks are less likely to return. Blacks are returning home at lower rates because they trust their public officials less than non-Blacks do.